TL;DR: Legacy PKI can consume more than $1 million a year in maintenance, licensing, and professional services for federal agencies, while fragmented certificate authorities create blind spots, slow issuance, and preventable outages, according to Axiad. The governance issue is not just cost, but an identity model that assumes certificate management can stay manual, isolated, and reviewable at human speed.
At a glance
What this is: This is a federal PKI modernization analysis arguing that legacy certificate operations drive cost, audit burden, and outage risk when certificate authorities, approvals, and visibility remain fragmented.
Why it matters: It matters because agencies and contractors managing machine trust, federation, and access governance need PKI models that reduce manual overhead without weakening certificate lifecycle control.
By the numbers:
- Agencies implementing cloud-native PKI solutions typically reduce annual operating costs by approximately 60%.
- Policy-driven automation can reduce certificate issuance times by 80%, bringing provisioning down to minutes rather than days or weeks.
Context
Public Key Infrastructure is the certificate-based trust layer that supports authentication, signing, and secure communications across federal environments. In this article, the governance problem is not whether PKI is necessary, but whether agencies can still operate it manually without creating cost, audit, and availability debt.
The article argues that fragmented Certificate Authorities, slow approval chains, and weak inventory visibility turn certificate lifecycle management into an operational bottleneck. For identity teams, the issue sits squarely in machine trust governance, where certificate issuance, renewal, and revocation must be managed as a lifecycle rather than a collection of isolated tasks.
That makes the article less about product selection than about architectural fit. The starting point is typical for large public-sector environments still carrying inherited PKI sprawl, scarce expertise, and compliance pressure at the same time.
Key questions
Q: What breaks when PKI remains fragmented across multiple Certificate Authorities?
A: Fragmented Certificate Authorities break trust visibility, delay issuance, and make revocation harder to prove. The result is a certificate estate where ownership is unclear, stale credentials persist longer than intended, and teams cannot reliably connect inventory to audit evidence or outage prevention.
Q: Why do manual certificate workflows increase audit and outage risk?
A: Manual workflows make certificate state changes slow enough that evidence becomes stale before it is reviewed. They also increase the chance that expired or unowned certificates survive unnoticed, which is how preventable outages and audit blind spots emerge in large environments.
Q: How should agencies decide which certificates to modernize first?
A: Start with the certificate types that support authentication, device trust, secure email, and mission-critical services. Those credentials carry the highest operational dependency, so reducing delay there delivers the greatest governance value and the clearest resilience improvement.
Q: What role does PKI play in Zero Trust programmes?
A: PKI provides the certificate foundation that Zero Trust depends on for strong authentication and continuous verification. If certificate issuance, renewal, and revocation are slow or unreliable, the Zero Trust programme inherits that fragility and cannot scale cleanly.
Technical breakdown
Why fragmented Certificate Authorities create identity blind spots
When multiple Certificate Authorities run independently, each one becomes its own policy island, inventory source, and approval queue. That fragmentation makes it hard to answer basic governance questions such as which certificates exist, who owns them, and whether they are still needed. Ghost certificates are the predictable result: untracked credentials that remain valid after operational ownership has faded. In PKI, the control failure is not cryptography itself but lifecycle fragmentation, where issuance, renewal, and revocation are handled in disconnected workflows. That model scales poorly because trust state is distributed across systems rather than governed centrally.
Practical implication: establish a single authoritative certificate inventory before attempting any PKI modernization.
How manual certificate issuance turns into audit and outage risk
Manual workflows slow certificate issuance, but the deeper issue is that they delay trustworthy state changes. If derived PIV credentials or compliance documentation take days or weeks to complete, teams lose the ability to treat certificate changes as routine governance events. That creates two risks at once: audit evidence becomes stale, and expired certificates can trigger avoidable outages when no one has timely visibility into renewal status. In identity terms, the environment depends on humans to keep pace with machine trust, which is the wrong operating model for certificate-heavy infrastructure.
Practical implication: map issuance, renewal, and revocation delays to the controls that currently depend on human intervention.
What cloud-native PKI changes in certificate lifecycle governance
Cloud-native PKI-as-a-Service changes the operating model by consolidating lifecycle operations and moving HSM management, compliance responsibilities, and workflow automation into a managed service boundary. That does not remove governance, but it changes where governance is enforced: policy, telemetry, and standardised workflows replace local administrative effort. For agencies, the practical shift is from maintaining infrastructure to managing trust outcomes. The article also ties this model to Zero Trust and post-quantum readiness, which makes sense because both depend on scalable, adaptable certificate governance rather than brittle, on-premises administration.
Practical implication: treat PKI modernisation as a lifecycle and governance redesign, not a lift-and-shift infrastructure project.
Threat narrative
Attacker objective: The practical outcome is not an exfiltration event but continued access through stale trust paths and avoidable service disruption.
- Entry occurs when certificate state is scattered across multiple Certificate Authorities and manual approval flows, leaving no single control point for trust governance.
- Credential access appears through ghost certificates and delayed revocation, where valid credentials remain active after ownership or need has changed.
- Impact follows as preventable outages, audit blind spots, and wasted operational effort accumulate across the certificate estate.
Breaches seen in the wild
- Poland ArcGIS password leak 2023: An ArcGIS login emailed in 2020 was published from stolen mail in 2023 and still worked, exposing Polish military and infrastructure maps.
Read and download The State of NHI & AI Agent Breach Report 2026, covering 150+ breaches impacting Non-Human Identities including AI Agents.
NHI Mgmt Group analysis
Legacy PKI becomes a governance problem when certificate ownership and state drift apart. The article shows that the real cost of old PKI is not only licensing and hardware, but the loss of reliable lifecycle control across multiple Certificate Authorities. When no one can confidently say which credentials are active, due for renewal, or already obsolete, trust management becomes speculative rather than governed. Practitioners should read this as a certificate ownership problem, not just an infrastructure problem.
Ghost certificates are a named symptom of a deeper identity inventory failure. A certificate that still validates but no longer has an accountable owner creates hidden risk because it remains usable even after operational attention has moved on. That pattern mirrors broader NHI governance failures in which inventory, ownership, and revocation are not aligned. The implication is that visibility must be treated as a control plane requirement, not an audit afterthought.
Cloud-native PKI shifts the control boundary from local administration to policy enforcement. That matters because federal environments need consistent issuance, renewal, and revocation behaviour across many teams and trust domains. The strategic question is no longer whether certificates can be managed manually at scale, but whether manual management is still a defensible operating assumption. Agencies should evaluate PKI modernisation as a governance redesign that reduces both operational drag and trust ambiguity.
PKI modernisation validates the broader move from infrastructure maintenance to identity lifecycle management. The article connects Zero Trust and post-quantum readiness to certificate governance because both depend on faster, more coherent trust operations. In practice, this means PKI can no longer sit outside the identity programme as a specialised back office function. It belongs in the same governance conversation as NHI lifecycle, federation, and privileged access.
Certificate automation is becoming a prerequisite for federal resilience, not a convenience. Once issuance, renewal, and revocation are slow enough to take days, the organisation has effectively accepted operational latency as a security control. That assumption no longer holds in environments that need continuous verification and rapid trust updates. Practitioners should treat PKI speed as a measurable governance capability, not an implementation detail.
From our research library:
- According to a recent Gartner report, 40% of government organizations are expected to establish dedicated trust operations functions by 2028 to combat deepfakes.
What this signals
Certificate lifecycle management is becoming the real control plane for federal trust. When certificate issuance, renewal, and revocation are trapped in manual queues, governance becomes dependent on human speed instead of policy. Agencies that still separate PKI from the identity programme will keep paying for that gap in both cost and resilience.
Ghost certificates are a warning sign that inventory and accountability have drifted apart. The operational problem is not only expired credentials, but valid credentials no one is actively governing. That is the kind of trust debt that becomes visible only after an outage or an audit challenge.
For practitioners
- Map every Certificate Authority and owner Build a single inventory of all Certificate Authorities, certificate classes, and accountable owners before changing the operating model. Include unmanaged and legacy trust chains so ghost certificates can be identified and retired.
- Measure issuance and revocation latency Track how long it takes to issue, renew, and revoke key certificate types today. Use those timings to identify where manual approvals and disconnected workflows are creating audit and outage exposure.
- Prioritise certificates with business-critical dependencies Start modernization with the certificate types that support login, device trust, secure email, and mission applications. Those are the trust points where delays and stale credentials create the highest operational impact.
- Align PKI governance with Zero Trust Reframe certificate lifecycle management as part of the identity programme, not a separate infrastructure task. That makes it easier to connect issuance policy, visibility, and revocation to broader trust decisions.
Key takeaways
- Legacy PKI is expensive partly because it depends on manual lifecycle work that does not scale with modern identity demands.
- Fragmented Certificate Authorities create blind spots that make certificate ownership, renewal, and revocation harder to govern.
- Modernisation matters because faster certificate control supports both audit readiness and broader Zero Trust execution.
Standards & Framework Alignment
This section maps relevant standards and security frameworks to the operational risks and controls described in this guidance.
OWASP Non-Human Identity Top 10 and MITRE ATT&CK address the attack and risk surface, while NIST SP 800-53 Rev 5 and NIST CSF 2.0 set the governance and control requirements practitioners need to meet.
| Framework | Control / Reference | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| OWASP Non-Human Identity Top 10 | NHI-01 — Improper Offboarding | Ghost certificates are stale credentials that outlive ownership and operational need. |
| NHI-07 — Long-Lived Secrets | Legacy PKI preserves credentials far longer than the governance model can track them. | |
| NHI-05 — Overprivileged NHI | Unnecessary certificate sprawl expands the effective trust surface across agencies. | |
| Recommendation — Retire certificates as soon as ownership or service dependency changes. Reduce certificate lifetime where possible and enforce renewal discipline. Limit certificate scope to the smallest service and trust domain required. | ||
| NIST SP 800-53 Rev 5 | IA-5 — Authenticator Management | Certificate issuance, renewal, and revocation are authenticator lifecycle controls. |
| Recommendation — Apply authenticator management controls to certificate issuance, rotation, and revocation. | ||
| NIST CSF 2.0 | PR.AA-05 — Access Permissions, Entitlements and Authorizations | Certificate governance determines which systems can authenticate and under what authority. |
| Recommendation — Align certificate entitlements with identity permissions and revoke unused trust paths. | ||
| MITRE ATT&CK | TA0006;TA0008 — Credential Access; Lateral Movement | Stale certificates can support credential abuse and movement across trust boundaries. |
| Recommendation — Map stale certificate exposure to credential-access and lateral-movement detection. | ||
Key terms
- Public Key Infrastructure: Public Key Infrastructure is the trust system that issues, manages, and revokes digital certificates used to prove identity. In practice it binds keys to entities and policies, making authentication, encryption, and non-repudiation possible across users, devices, and services.
- Certificate Authority Services: Certificate Authority Services are the trust services that issue and manage digital certificates for users, applications, and machines. They anchor encrypted communication by proving identity and supporting certificate lifecycle controls such as issuance, renewal, revocation, and validation across enterprise systems.
- Ghost certificate: A ghost certificate is a valid certificate that remains in circulation or on record without clear ownership or active tracking. These credentials often survive process changes, creating hidden trust exposure until they expire, break, or are discovered during an incident or audit.
- Certificate Lifecycle Management: The governance of digital certificates from issuance through renewal and revocation, ensuring certificates are valid, monitored, and rotated before expiry. Expired certificates are a leading cause of outages and unplanned security gaps.
Deepen your knowledge
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Published by the NHIMG editorial team on June 7, 2026.
Updated on October 7, 2026.
NHI Mgmt Group, the independent authority on Non-Human Identity, IAM, and Agentic AI security. nhimg.org