Valentine’s Day fraud risk: what retailers need to act on

TL;DR: Daily fraudulent order volume reaches its February peak on Valentine’s Day, 35 percent above the monthly average, while risk also rises for new customers and gift card abuse during the holiday rush, according to Riskified. The broader lesson is that seasonal commerce creates identity ambiguity that rules alone cannot resolve.

NHIMG editorial — based on content published by Riskified: Is it romance, or is it risky business? Valentine’s Day fraud patterns for retailers

By the numbers:

• National Retail Federation predicts Valentine’s Day spending will reach a record $29.1 billion in 2026.
• If 2025 figures hold true, more than a third of those purchases will happen online.
• Daily fraudulent order volume reaches its monthly high on February 14, 35 percent above the monthly average.

Questions worth separating out

Q: How should retailers reduce fraud during seasonal shopping spikes?

A: Retailers should combine behavioural scoring, device reputation, and network linkage before the peak period arrives.

Q: Why are gift cards a higher fraud risk than many physical goods?

A: Gift cards are easier to monetise quickly, require less fulfilment data, and often bypass shipping-based verification.

Q: What do fraud teams get wrong about new customers during promotions?

A: They often treat low history as either low risk or automatic fraud, when it is really a signal to collect better context.

Practitioner guidance

• Tighten controls on digital gift card flows Apply stronger step-up checks when buyers purchase gift cards with newly created accounts, suspicious proxies, or unusual recipient domains.
• Use networked identity clustering at peak season Correlate accounts, devices, emails, payment instruments, and IP reputation across the full holiday window instead of scoring each order in isolation.
• Raise scrutiny for first-time buyers during promotions Increase verification thresholds for new customers when volume spikes and historical behaviour is sparse.

What's in the full article

Riskified's full analysis covers the operational detail this post intentionally leaves for the source:

• Category-level fraud patterns by February day, including how risk shifts across early planners, gift cards, and new customers.
• Behavioural red flags seen in account takeover cases, including proxy use and unfamiliar recipient domains.
• How identity-based clustering can improve approval rates without relying on brittle rules alone.
• The article's full reasoning on balancing revenue protection against false declines during seasonal peaks.

👉 Read Riskified's analysis of Valentine’s Day fraud patterns and holiday risk →

Valentine’s Day fraud risk: what retailers need to act on?

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